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Middle East Conflict and the Markets: Arun Leslie John on Century Conversations

Middle East Conflict and Markets: Oil, Gold and Opportunity | Century Financial

In Conversations

When the Middle East conflict sent oil sharply higher and rattled global markets, Century Financial's Chief Market Analyst Arun Leslie John joined Century Conversations to talk through what it meant for markets, and for money. His central point: conflict-driven moves often reverse fast, and the real edge is discipline rather than chasing the spike.

Oil and Gold: Why the Obvious Trades Misfired

  • Oil's spike was momentum, not a new floor. Prices gapped up on weekend strikes toward $120, fell back to the high $80s, then climbed again. A case of buy the rumor, sell the news.
  • The Strait of Hormuz matters less than it once did. Around 20% of global oil still passes through it, but US output has risen to roughly 13 million barrels a day, now above Saudi Arabia and Russia, with alternative pipelines absorbing some pressure. A $200 barrel is not the base case, though Arun will not rule out sharp spikes if key infrastructure is hit.
  • Gold did not behave like a safe haven. Instead of rallying, it slipped from its highs, held down by a stronger US dollar and the risk that rate cuts slow if inflation stays firm.
  • Central-bank buying puts a floor under gold. Purchases running at roughly double the previous decade's average add steady demand even when other forces pull prices lower.

The Bigger Picture: UAE Resilience and AI

  • Don't marry a position. For short-term traders, the discipline is active monitoring and readiness to exit. Weekend headlines can gap the market by Monday.
  • The UAE economy is built to absorb shocks. It has grown from around $100 billion in 2000 to roughly $550 billion in 2025, about 5.5 times, on strong fundamentals.
  • AI is a structural theme, not a bubble. Arun frames it like an industrial revolution for productivity, with big-tech investment set to rise sharply into 2026. Past shocks, he notes, have tended to reverse and recover over time.

Takeaways: New and Experienced Traders

If you are newer, distrust the obvious trade. War does not automatically mean gold up or oil to the moon, and weekend headlines can reverse by Monday. Watch how price actually behaves.

If you are experienced, the framing is discipline over conviction. Size for reversals, keep risk controls in place, and treat volatility as a source of opportunity rather than a reason to chase.

Bottom Line

Every bout of volatility carries both risk and opportunity, and the difference is preparation. Watch the full conversation above. (Views reflect market conditions at the time of recording and are not investment advice.)

FAQs

It describes markets pricing in an event in advance, then reversing once it actually happens. Arun uses it to explain why conflict-driven oil spikes gave back gains after markets reopened.
About 20% of global oil supply moves through the strait, which is why disruptions there can trigger sharp, if often temporary, price spikes.
Less so, in Arun's view. He notes US oil output has risen to roughly 13 million barrels a day, now above Saudi Arabia and Russia, and alternative pipelines ease some chokepoint pressure.
Sustained central-bank purchases add steady demand. Arun notes buying has run at roughly double the previous decade's average, which he says helps put a floor under prices.
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